“If we continue with paralysing, country-by-country finger-pointing, rather than finding ways to act collectively, we will sink together,” writes the prime minister of Barbados WorldAhead
Save time by listening to our audio articles as you multitaskSigns of this looming crisis appeared in the second half of 2022, when the dollar rose strongly, raising the debt-servicing costs of many middle-income countries to unsustainable levels. The roots of the crisis lie in the divergent responses to the covid-19 pandemic. World economic activity slowed sharply in the middle of 2020 for almost 18 months. My country’sfell by 14% at the worst point, and unofficial unemployment touched 40%.
These “stimulus countries” recovered first. By the middle of 2022, American unemployment was back to cyclical lows of 3.6%. When supply bottlenecks and inflation emerged, the Federal Reserve began withdrawing monetary stimulus and raising interest rates. The Fed’s unusually dramatic tightening in 2022 pushed up the dollar. In an attempt to stop their currencies from falling against the dollar, amplifying inflationary pressures, other countries began raising interest rates in tandem.
That is not to say that the Fed should change course. But international policymakers should acknowledge the impact higher American rates and a stronger dollar are having internationally and provide as much liquidity as possible to countries that need it, so they are not locked into inappropriate policy tightening.
This idea forms part of the “Bridgetown Initiative” for reform, which I will be championing in 2023. If we continue with paralysing, country-by-country finger-pointing, rather than finding ways to act collectively, we will sink together. I dare to hope otherwise.This article appeared in the The Americas section of the print edition of
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