Vladimir Putin’s decision to recognise two breakaway republics in Ukraine, and to deploy troops there “marks the start of a new phase, rather than the end, of the current standoff”, warns KofmanMichael
FTER A LENGTHY and ominous speech, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin chose to recognise the breakaway Luhansk and Donetsk People’s Republics, in eastern Ukraine, on February 21st. Shortly afterwards, Russian troops marched in openly. Yet this decision marks the start of a new phase, rather than the end of the current standoff.
The evolution of this crisis, Mr Putin’s grievances and the current disposition of Russian forces suggest the start of a more significant play for Ukraine, with grand aims. The Kremlin’s recent claims of continuing escalation, and that Ukrainian soldiers crossed into Russian territory, appear to be part of a false-flag operation, building the case for a larger war.
Russia has positioned more than 150,000 troops to surround Ukraine from Belarus in the north to Crimea in the south. Together with Russian-led forces in the Donbas, and auxiliaries including Rosgvardia, Russia’s national guard, this figure may exceed 190,000. These ground forces are supported by hundreds of tactical aircraft, forward-deployed attack helicopters and the Russian navy. This is not a force for a limited campaign, but one designed to pursue maximalist political aims.
This war would begin with air strikes, missile strikes and use of electronic warfare and cyber-attacks. Their goal would be to degrade, fragment and paralyse the Ukrainian armed forces along with its political leadership. This air campaign would be brief, followed by a combined arms ground offensive. Russia’s ground force is an artillery army with tanks and mechanised infantry. It emphasises decisive use of firepower.
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