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Monaco GP 2026: Ferrari favored over dominant Mercedes in race of precision

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Monaco GP 2026: Ferrari favored over dominant Mercedes in race of precision
Formula 1Monaco Grand PrixFerrari

The European leg of the 2026 Formula 1 season begins with round six at the Monaco Grand Prix. Mercedes has dominated the season so far, winning all grands prix from pole position. However, Monaco's characteristics-low power sensitivity and emphasis on cornering performance-are expected to suit Ferrari, whose car is strong in corners and has good low-end engine response, despite lacking top-end power. Charles Leclerc's exceptional record at Monaco and Lewis Hamilton's improved form add intrigue.

Lewis Hamilton has won three times at the Monaco Grand Prix - in 2008 with McLaren and 2016 and 2019 with Mercedes The European leg of the 2026 Formula 1 season begins with round six at the Monaco Grand Prix this weekend.

Teenager Kimi Antonelli holds a 43-point advantage over Mercedes team-mate George Russell at the top of the drivers' championship following his fourth consecutive win of the campaign in Canada two weeks ago. Before the race in Monte Carlo, BBC Sport F1 correspondent Andrew Benson answers your latest questions. Why is the Monaco Grand Prix expected to suit Ferrari more than McLaren, Mercedes or Red Bull?

- Andrew Mercedes have dominated the 2026 season so far, winning all the grands prix from pole position. The only time they have beaten to either the front of the grid or a victory was in the sprint in Miami, when Lando Norris took pole and the win for McLaren. The reason Monaco has been identified as a place where that run may end, particularly in favour of Ferrari, is to do with car, engine and driver characteristics.

Monaco is the least power-sensitive track on the calendar. In other words, it is the track where cornering performance - particularly at low and medium-speed - is most important, and engine power least. The Ferrari car this year has proved to be quick in the corners, arguably the fastest. That's good for Monaco.

Meanwhile, its engine has both strengths and weaknesses. It has good low-speed pick-up, hence their good starts, but lacks top-end power. Again, good for Monaco, where a responsive engine is a benefit, and top-end power is relatively less important. As for the drivers, Charles Leclerc is an ace around Monaco.

In the past six years, he has qualified on pole three times, been second on the grid twice and third once. Lewis Hamilton has also traditionally excelled at Monaco, and is in much better form this year after his struggles in 2024 and 2025. He and Leclerc are tied 4-4 in their qualifying head to head this season, and Leclerc has an average advantage of only 0.037 seconds. Having said that, performance is performance.

Ferrari's average deficit to Mercedes in qualifying this year is 0.447 seconds, and that's a big margin to make up just on a swing of characteristics. And it would be unwise to rule out McLaren and Red Bull. The McLaren was quick in Miami, and has proved particularly good in low-speed corners this year. And Lando Norris won in Monaco from pole last year.

While Max Verstappen is outstanding always. Is Kimi Antonelli being overhyped due to results that largely he's been a tad fortunate with? Aside from China, in Miami he benefited from a better strategy call by Mercedes to beat Lando Norris, Suzuka was the safety car and Canada saw McLaren's mistake and George Russell retire.

- Gavin Kimi Antonelli has definitely had luck on his side this year, and there is no question that the size of his lead over Mercedes team-mate George Russell - 43 points after five races - is in large part a consequence of that. It's also true that the timing of the safety car in Japan handed Antonelli the lead on a plate, that Russell's technical problems in China qualifying - first with a gearbox glitch and then a front-wing issue - prevented him from fighting for pole there, and that McLaren dropped the ball on strategy in Miami, allowing Antonelli to undercut Norris for the lead.

At the same time, there is no question that Antonelli has raised his level significantly this year, is living up to the potential Mercedes have long seen in him, and is a legitimate championship leader. In China, his front wing actually had the same problem on his final lap in qualifying as Russell's did.

And in Japan, Mercedes felt he was on track to take the lead regardless of the safety car, such was his pace on medium tyres once in clear air. And you can hardly hold against him McLaren's fallibility in Miami, or the issue with Russell's engine in Montreal. While Russell was leading in Canada when he retired, it was very far from a comfortable lead. Antonelli was all over him, and looked faster.

The destiny of the victory was wide open. And while they are tied in the head-to-head qualifying battle 4-4, Antonelli is slightly quicker on average so far this season, by 0.074secs. So, yes, the size of Antonelli's lead is partly due to circumstances, but it's equally true that he has had an outstanding season so far against a driver who is himself outstanding.

There are plenty of twists and turns to come, and luck usually evens itself out over a season - although that was not the case between Hamilton and Nico Rosberg at Mercedes in 2016, it has to be said. Given the massive attention to detail associated with F1 engineering, what possibly happened when Fernando Alonso was forced to retire from Canada with a loose seat. Surely such a fundamental item should be fitted correctly?

- Ian The question contains a misunderstanding of what happened to cause Fernando Alonso's retirement in Canada. As Alonso said after the race: "I felt increasingly uncomfortable. The position wasn't right and, since we were out of the points, far from the points zone, and with no threat of rain, we decided to put an end to the pain. We tried to adjust a few things last night, but it didn't work.

" Aston Martin's chief trackside officer Mike Krack explained that the issue was rooted in a seating position that this year is more reclined than in previous seasons, the idea being to lower the centre of gravity. Krack said: "He hasn't felt completely comfortable for a while now - never to the point of becoming a real obstacle, but it's like a pressure point that gets worse lap after lap, and I think we need to reconsider the seating position a bit.

"With these cars, you always try to sit as low as possible, and if you look at how drivers have been sitting in recent years, the position has become increasingly more relaxed. Maybe we've gone a step too far, but it's something we need to look into.

"The team are going to try out a few solutions to the problem in Monaco this weekend, such as Alonso perhaps sitting a little higher, or adjusting the pedals. Fernando Alonso and Aston Martin team-mate Lance Stroll are yet to score a point in the drivers' championship this year FIA president Mohammed Ben Sulayem seems to be gathering together all the strings of power within the FIA into his own hands.

His latest move appears to give himself the presidency for life. Why aren't we hearing more voices condemning this, as it surely cannot be a good thing? - Phil This is the latest of a series of moves in recent times that seem designed to entrench Ben Sulayem's position and, critics argue, undermine good governance and transparency at the FIA.

These moves have been extensively reported on by BBC Sport in the past two years or so, but they includeno opposition in the election campaign last yearThe FIA has always offered a robust response to any such accusations, insisting it is a democratic organisation upholding good governance standards. It says it has "taken steps since 2021 to strengthen its corporate governance policies", which "ensure its rules, practices and processes are robust and transparent".

It also points out that all changes to governance processes were voted through by member clubs with heavy majorities. Ben Sulayem and the FIA election process are currently being challenged in the French courts by former racing driver Laura Villars. There has been a significant level of disquiet in F1 at the way Ben Sulayem is conducting himself in office since very early in his first term, and little has changed on that front.

At the same time, people in F1 are wary of speaking publicly on the matter, for fear of recriminations. There is also very little anyone in F1 can do about it. Neither the teams nor F1 itself have any say in the running of the FIA. Ultimately, only the FIA member clubs have a say on their president.

And the voting numbers are heavily in Ben Sulayem's favour. Live commentary on BBC Radio 5 Live and BBC Radio 5 Sports Extra 2 and 3; live text updates on BBC Sport website and appGiven the increased performance, power deployment and higher grip levels of the latest F1 cars, shouldn't some of the circuits be improved to reflect this increased performance and to ensure the safety of drivers?

- John The 2026 F1 cars do have faster acceleration than their predecessors, owing to the increased output of the electrical components of the power-units. However, their total engine power is in the same ballpark as last year's engines - about 1,000bhp - and they actually have significantly lower grip levels than before. Downforce has been reduced this year by quite a large amount, and the cars' performance in, particularly, high-speed corners is much reduced compared with last year.

As for circuit safety, the FIA and F1 are constantly working to improve and refine this; changes are made every year in one way or another. At the same time, the performance of the cars is also kept under consideration, and when rules change, this tends to be reined in a little, to ensure speeds do not get out of balance.

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