Stocks Analysis by Dr. Arnout ter Schure covering: Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones Industrial Average. Read Dr. Arnout ter Schure 's latest article on Investing.com
had peaked at $18464 on March 21, which was only 0.81% below the ideal target of ~$18615 we had set forth three weeks prior. As such, we concluded:EWP) count is for a larger top to have formed, and is heading for the ideal black W-4? target zone of $15900+/-200.”
Once again, the EWP can greatly help us. Namely, the rally from the April 19 low has so far been in three waves. See the chart in Figure 1 below. Three-wave rallies are counter-trend rallies, aka “dead cat bounces.”Thus, our preferred EWP count is for a larger top to have formed yesterday, the red W-b/ii, contingent on holding below the colored warning levels shown in Figure 1 above.
Thus, six weeks ago, we found the NDX would likely top at around $18615, and we got $18464. Three weeks ago, we warned that a significant top could have formed and were validated with a 5.8% decline since. The current rally off the recent low counts best as a counter-trend rally and, together with seasonality, suggests the next leg lower to ideally $15900+/-500, is underway, contingent on holding below the warning levels for the Bears outlined in this article.
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