Morgan Stanley warns about an 'uncertain macro backdrop'
The US economy continues to send mixed signals, leading to recent swings in both stock and bond markets.
Specifically, the Employment Cost Index data and the price components of the ISM Manufacturing and Services indices were stronger than expected. In contrast to the latest, Nonfarm Payroll report, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence index, and the overall ISM readings, all of which came in below expectations.
Markets will now focus on the April consumer price index report on May 15, which will be crucial for monetary policy guidance. “We see Consumer Staples as a beneficiary of trade down from discretionary categories. On this score, the relative earnings revisions of Consumer Staples vs. Consumer Discretionary have recently turned higher, pointing to upside in relative performance from here,” said strategists.
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