Nate Silver Says Election Is Now A Toss-Up As Harris Takes Polling Lead

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Nate Silver Says Election Is Now A Toss-Up As Harris Takes Polling Lead
Kamala HarrisNate Silver
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Harris has now taken a slight lead against Trump ahead of the presidential election in November, according to data published by Silver’s Substack on Sunday.

Vice President Kamala Harris has overtaken former President Donald Trump in the race for the presidency for the first time in the calculations of one of the nation’s most popular poll watchers.Silver’s model, which compiles the results of statewide polls and weights them based on reliability, showed Trump polling ahead of the Democratic candidate for most of July—including during the weeks immediately after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race.

The same model had independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. polling at about 5% in the general election.model published on Friday , the blog now published by ABC News had Harris slightly leading Trump with 45% of the vote, compared to the former president’s 43.5%. The election is too close to predict, FiveThirtyEight concluded.at defeating Trump in the 2020 presidential election—a bold prediction that eventually proved accurate. However, he also gave Hilary Clinton aSilver’s newsletter was published after a week of promising polls for the vice president showed Harris gaining an advantage in key swing states.

The same survey showed Trump ahead in Pennsylvania and North Carolina, and the two candidates tied in Georgia.still has Trump leading the vice president in Pennsylvania and Michigan, with the pair tied in Wisconsin. The Times’ model has Trump ahead by one point in the general election—but that lead shrinks to a draw if you include Kennedy.

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