Ambient temperatures are associated with over 5 million premature deaths worldwide every year, more than 300,000 of which in Western Europe alone.
Barcelona Institute for Global Health Jun 26 2024 In a context of rapidly warming temperatures that successively broke previous records during the last two decades, it is essential to use epidemiological models to develop novel, impact-based early warning systems predicting the health effects of forecast temperatures.
The tool allows users to enter the date for which they want to obtain the health predictions within a window of up to two weeks, as well as the population subgroup for which they want to obtain the prediction of temperature related mortality. Once these variables have been selected, the system displays a map showing warnings for 580 regions in 31 European countries with colour codes corresponding to four levels of heat and cold related mortality risk: low, moderate, high and extreme.
More precise than weather forecasts The team used the mortality database of the project EARLY-ADAPT , which currently includes data for 580 regions in 31 European countries by sex, age and cause of death, to fit separate epidemiological models for population groups. Every day, the tool obtains temperature records and forecasts, and uses the epidemiological models to quantify the risk of temperature related mortality by sex and age group for any given date within the following 15 days.
"Our approach crucially depends on the availability of health data to fit our epidemiological models. We are eager to add additional health outcomes for more countries or smaller regions, either from Europe or in other continents, if data is provided to us", emphasizes Joan Ballester Claramunt.
Heat Mortality Epidemiology Global Health Research
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