A guide to the economics and the politics of extending the Trump tax cuts
go to the pollsMajor provisions of former President Trump's 2017 tax law expire at the end of 2025, meaning taxes would go up for most Americans if no new bill is passed. Neither party wants to let that happen in its entirety — but Democrats and Republicans have radically different visions of what the tax code should look like in 2026 and beyond.Control of the White House, Senate and House will determine who holds the best cards in negotiations to extend the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act .
Other expiring provisions include an increase in the standard deduction, a cap on the deductibility of state and local taxes, and a reduction in the estate tax.earlier this month found that fully extending the TCJA would add more than $4 trillion to cumulative fiscal deficits over the next decade. Now: "The state of the macroeconomy with high interest rates and higher inflation means that a bad outcome on deficits in 2025 would be extra bad for the economy," said Moller. "That needs to be something that weighs on the policymakers."If the 2024 elections result in a Republican trifecta — Trump winning back the White House combined with Republicans holding the House and winning the Senate — there are still open questions about what form a TCJA extension could take.
Would he be willing to allow the tax cuts to expire entirely — in contradiction of his pledge not to raise taxes on households making under $400,000 — to try to force concessions from congressional Republicans?
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