Renee Miller and Adam Gretz go over chalk picks, contrarian picks and general NFL survivor pool strategy for Week 1.
If the goal for the first week is simply surviving and getting through to the next week then there probably is not a better choice this week than the Baltimore Ravens. They are double-digit favorites over a Houston Texans team that is not only one of the worst rosters in football, but is also starting a rookie quarterback in his NFL debut . The Ravens not only have the highest win probability for the week , they are also the most popular pick .
The only problem with picking the Ravens is that they still have some pretty good future value and you might want to hold onto them for a week when your league has thinned out a little more. That Week 3 game against Indianapolis is also intriguing for them, as is Week 8 against Arizona when your league might really be thinned out.
If you wanted to save the Ravens for a later date, Washington is probably the next safest pick here given that they are playing the aforementioned Arizona team that, quite frankly, may not win many games at all this season. The Commanders also do not have much future value as they are favored only in a handful of games the rest of the way. You are never going to get a better time to pick the Commanders and Sam Howell. My favorite pick for a safe start to the season is Minnesota .
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