Nicola Sturgeon's carefully calculated political game is starting to unravel 🔵 EliotWilson2 for ipaperviews
It would be astonishing if the Supreme Court did anything other than refuse the Scottish Government’s case. The authorisation of a referendum of leaving the UK by the devolved administration and legislature is plainly contrary to the wording and the intent of the Scotland Act 1998: devolution was created to placate and ward off calls for independence, not enable them.
That framing—although one could argue that it is hardly—would entail the SNP presenting their winning anything more than half the seats in Scotland, a bar they are likely comfortably the clear, as a mandate from the people of Scotland to seek independence. It would then be prayed in aid as a weapon of significant legal and moral force to push the issue forward in the next parliament.
It is possible that a Scottish Government, rejected by the Supreme Court, could seek to hold an unofficial referendum. This “wildcat” option was in vogue some months ago but seems now to hold less appeal. Its potential for confusion and disarray is huge: if unionist councils refused to participate in the logistics, the result would be a partial poll returning results only from nationalist areas, which would lack any serious legitimacy.
After this week’s hearing, the Supreme Court is expected to take up to two months to deliver a verdict. The result is unlikely to be an early Christmas present for the First Minister, who will have to continue to find other, more practical means to press the suit of separation; but unionists should not unwrap such a ruling with too much glee either.
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