Jobs, jobs, jobs – that is the focus for the Federal Reserve (Fed) and for almost all tradable assets.
Economists expect Nonfarm Payrolls to show an increase of 140K jobs in September. Small deviations from this outcome will likely have a straightforward impact on assets. A horrible outcome or a leap in job creation may trigger counter-intuitive responses. Jobs, jobs, jobs – that is the focus for the Federal Reserve and for almost all tradable assets. The release is critical for the next Fed decision, with markets split about whether the bank will cut interest rates by 25 or 50 basis points.
2) Moderately above expectations Stronger job growth may push the Fed toward a smaller rate cut, but that would not be a done deal just yet. The good news is that recession fears are exaggerated. This is a Goldilocks scenario, not too hot, nor too cold. I expect Gold bearish on rate fears US Dollar bullish on stronger data.
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