Market will never be winner takes all given that different patients will have different requirements
That the obesity market will be massive is a given, with sales projected to rise to $150bn by 2030. But it will be crowded, too. The premium valuations enjoyed by the current duopoly — Denmark’s Novo Nordisk and the US’s Eli Lilly on 32.5 and 57.6 times 2024 earnings respectively — are predicated on the fact that their heft will allow them to keep on top of the competition. Novo Nordisk’s stumble on Friday puts that in doubt.
It may have to do with dosing, since only 57 per cent of patients in the trial received the highest amount of the drug. Meanwhile, even at 22.7 per cent weight loss, CagriSema is marginally ahead of Eli Lilly’s Zepbound, which in a recent trial reduced body weight by 22.5 per cent. Yet there is some logic to the market’s reaction to Novo Nordisk’s miss. Had CagriSema managed to shave a quarter off patients’ body weight, that would have given it a clear lead in the next generation of drugs.
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