OPINION | Oil’s not at $200. But it’s pricey enough for Asia [By Andy Mukherjee] READ:
Back then, prices almost quadrupled in three months and then just kept rising. This time around, Brent crude zoomed to about $128 a barrel, but fell equally dramatically. Speculative bets on a renewed surge are unwinding — as prices bob around the $100-a-barrel range. Yet, policy makers and investors shouldn’t be too complacent. Even if the benchmark this year doesn’t hit thethat commodities trader Pierre Andurand sees as possible, oil can be a potent instrument of stagflation.
However, somewhat cooler global energy prices may not necessarily take away the inflationary pressure. The reason is China. India appears particularly vulnerable to what Observatory Group analyst Ananth Narayan calls the “policy maker’s nightmare.” If current trends sustain, the current account deficit for the fiscal year that starts in April could exceed 3% of GDP, he says, adding that the Reserve Bank of India may need to sell a record amount of foreign currency to keep the rupee stable.
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