“A trade surplus and the inflow of petrodollars have helped Russia avoid economic meltdown,” explains the political scientist. “But a hidden crisis is not the same as a strong economy”
boasts about the strength of the Russian economy in the face of Western sanctions, citing estimates by international financial institutions that Russianshrank only modestly in 2022. The Russian leader’s bullishness is hardly surprising, and he is not alone: it is a widely held view that the sanctions imposed on his regime have had little economic impact.
Right now, supply exceeds demand in the global oil market. But according to the March forecast by the International Energy Agency, demand will increase significantly by the end of the year; this will push prices up again. Even taking into account a substantial discount on the price of Russian crude, in part the result of a-imposed price cap, oil will provide Mr Putin with enough funds to continue his war and sustain his repressive regime.
I am convinced that if energy prices had been much lower, the war in Ukraine would not have happened. Huge revenues from trade not only consolidated authoritarianism and the elites that profited from their distribution, but also gave Mr Putin’s regime and its hangers-on a general sense of power and invincibility, spurring on what we might call “petro-nationalism”.
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