OP-ED: SA Coal is burning out quicker than expected By Chris Yelland for EE Publishers and Mariam Isa
, a respected international energy think-tank, warns that new energy technologies will replace coal-fired power faster than most predict.
Waning export demand will hit South African coal miners hard, as thermal coal exports accounted for R73-billion in 2018 – half of the value of the industry’s sales, although only a third of its production. As the business case for coal-fired power deteriorates, wind and solar power are rapidly becoming the cheapest source of new generation in many countries. According to Bloomberg New Energy Finance , these renewable energy technologies will be cheaper than coal or gas-fired plants virtually everywhere in the world by 2030.
Pakistan, South Africa’s second-biggest export market, had ambitious plans for new coal-fired plants, but financial pressure and waning demand in its flagging economy led to the cancellation of one large project in January this year. The government has recently set a target for renewables to reach 30% of installed capacity by 2030, up from 4% now.
Even with Eskom’s new coal-fired power stations Medupi and Kusile slowly coming on stream, a significant portion of Eskom’s old coal-fired plants are already in “cold storage”, unlikely to ever come into service again, while decommissioning of old operating coal-fired power stations is set to continue in the years to 2030 and beyond.
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