Saudi Arabia and its partners have been keeping roughly 2 million barrels-a-day offline this year, and will meet on June 1 to consider whether to continue.
OPEC+ is expected to prolong oil output cuts into the second half of the year as it seeks to stave off a global surplus and shore up prices.
“OPEC+ will want to see evidence of sustained tightness in oil markets before starting to add supply, so there’s a good chance they will decide to extend,” said Richard Bronze, an analyst at Energy Aspects Ltd. “The discussions will not begin in earnest until closer to the meeting date.” Twenty-six of 30 survey respondents forecast that OPEC+ would persevere, and eight of those predicted the curbs would last to the end of 2024 or even longer. Only four projected production increases, of as much as 1.1 million barrels a day.
“We are at a tipping point in the oil markets where there is a strong case to add volumes,” said Christyan Malek, global head of energy strategy at JPMorgan Chase & Co. Still, “this is a balancing act — there’s a case to add, and also a case not to add. It’s not clear cut.”While Saudi Arabia often advocates caution when adding supplies to the market, its neighbor the United Arab Emirates sometimes takes a conflicting stance.
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