Researchers projected age- and sex-specific heat-related deaths across Europe by 2023. They also calculated the death load saved via social adaptation to increasing temperatures since 2000.
By Pooja Toshniwal PahariaReviewed by Danielle Ellis, B.Sc.Aug 14 2024 In a recent study published in Nature Medicine , researchers projected age- and sex-specific heat-related deaths across Europe by 2023. They also calculated the death load saved via social adaptation to increasing temperatures since 2000.
About the study In the present study, researchers quantified the heat-related death burden in 2023, computed for weeks warmer than the minimum mortality temperature, and fitted epidemiological models in factual-counterfactual scenarios to assess the role of adaptation in mitigating the 2023 death toll in the context of rising temperatures.
The models enabled them to predict the number of deaths and rates connected with heat if temperatures for 2023 occurred in earlier historical periods. The researchers fitted models with data from increasingly older eras to estimate rising heat-related death numbers and rates in all sexes and age groups.
Results Researchers predicted 47,690 heat-related fatalities in 2023 , the second largest mortality load from 2015-2023, only topped by 2022. They argue that if temperatures had occurred between 2000 and 2004, the overall population's heat-related death burden would have been 80% greater without current-century adjustments.
In 2023, two incidents in mid-July and late August accounted for 58% of all heat-related deaths, with Southern European nations and Germany suffering significant mortality rates between weeks 28 and 29. Heat-related fatalities were estimated at 14,407 in weeks 33 and 34, impacting higher-latitude locations such as the Baltic nations.
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