After the report into lockdown rule-breaking, political editor Chris Mason assesses the PM's future.
So says a Conservative MP to me, as we indulge in a spot of guesswork about how many Tory MPs might have formally requested a vote of confidence in the prime minister.the report into pandemic parties on Boris Johnson's watchFor months, many Conservative MPs - who collectively have the capacity to give their leader the boot - invoked the name of the senior civil servant tasked with the inquiry: let's wait for Sue Gray, they would say.
And the whole thing is complicated further because some people have put in letters and then taken them out again. It's one thing having a duff policy, one MP tells me. In that situation you can change it or go quiet about it. When it's about the character of your leader, it is much harder. Now some MPs, asking questions about when their local one might be coming, are hearing the long-winded process hasn't even started yet.54 letters are never reached and Boris Johnson carries on54 letters are reached, there's a confidence vote and Boris Johnson loses. He's out. Then there's a leadership race, involving Conservative MPs and Conservative Party members, to pick our next prime minister. Rishi Sunak, Liz Truss, Jeremy Hunt... the list is just beginning.
And while technically winning by one would allow a leader to continue, this MP suggests most would walk at that point - but Mr Johnson would not."I suspect over this week quite a few colleagues will make their minds up. Sue Gray was the public holding position for many. Developments since then won't have helped the prime minister."When following any political story, remember an important rule: account for the people not making a lot of noise, as well as those who are.
They've priced in the prime minister's failings, goes the theory, now let him get on with what he was elected to do.
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