Which teams should win more games this season than they did in 2023? We made five picks, including the Patriots.
, with episodes released once a week. Barnwell joined ESPN in 2011 as a staff writer at Grantland. Follow him on Twitter here:
I'm inclined to think they'll make it 5-for-5 this season because there's no more obvious candidate to improve this season by the measures we use. We'll start with the simple one: The Chargers weren't as bad as they seemed a year ago. Even as they allowed approximatelyThey were outscored by only about three points per game, which is usually associated with a better record than 5-12. From 1989 to 2022, there were 54 teams that were outscored by between 2.5 and 3.
The Chargers were not without luck or close victories -- they came up with an interception in the end zone in Week 3 with 15 seconds left to-- but their close games typically went the wrong way. This is a classic indicator for teams that typically improve the following season.for whatever woes the Chargers had in terms of closing out narrow games. I'm not sure I agree, but regardless, things should be better this season.
Let's start with the defense, because what the Pats did in the second half in 2023 is one of the most underreported performances of last season. From Week 10 onward, the Patriots -- not the Chiefs, not the Ravens, not the Jets -- were the best defense in football. They allowed 1.3 points per drive and minus-0.12 expected points added per play, both of which were tops in the NFL.
Brissett's best skill is avoiding interceptions; the only quarterback who has posted a better interception rate since he entered the league is. And for the Patriots, even if they don't immediately turn to Maye, having a quarterback who can protect the football would go a long way. The 2023 Patriots turned the ball over 29 times and posted a turnover margin of minus-11.
While Quinn's defenses were forcing interceptions in Dallas, the Commanders weren't generating many of their own. Their 1.5% interception rate over the past two seasons was the worst in football, and that's an element of the game that fluctuates more randomly from season to season. If they take a surprising step forward, an increased interception rate from the defense is likely to be one of the reasons.
Instead, there are other factors under the hood for Kansas City that lead me to project a jump past 11 wins this season. Since we were just talking about the Commanders and their turnover margin, let's start there. With the greatest quarterback on the planet and an elite defense, the Chiefs somehow managed to post a minus-11 turnover differential, the league's fifth-worst mark.& Co. actually lost the turnover battle in nine of their 17 games, going 4-5 in those matchups.
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