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Unai Emery has a history of overachieving in the early stages of a new job. He did it at Arsenal where he racked up a 70 per cent win ratio in his first 20 matches before it dropped to 50 per cent in his final 58 games as boss.
Mads Andersen, who scored against West Ham, is a giant and will be venturing forward with intent this season in a much more set-piece-oriented side than his former club Barnsley were. I'm expecting his shots, touches in the opposition box and goals data to spike. That's why taking the 6/5 with Sky Bet on him just registering one or more shots looks a huge slice of value.
He has drawn 19 fouls across his last 12 appearances for club and country and it will be Dunk tasked with engaging him. Dunk averages just 0.40 fouls a game over his last 25 matches, meaning the price spat out by the algorithm makes him the outsider of all Brighton players to make a foul. That looks a rick to me. Backing him to make two or more fouls at 5/1 is also significantly overpriced. Punish such slack pricing.
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