Russia's president will want to register some kind of victory before his troops return, writes Jonathan Marcus.
A Ukrainian soldier on patrol: Nato and the US are worried about a build-up of Russian troops on the eastern Ukraine border
The seriousness of this situation cannot be over-stated. The scale and nature of Russia's military build-up around Ukraine is extraordinary. US intelligence sources are warning that the Kremlin is preparing for a multi-front offensive, as soon as early next year, involving some 175,000 troops.Michael Kofman, one of the West's best-informed watchers of Russian military affairs, at the US Centre for Naval Analyses, says people are right to be concerned.
For all his talk about Russia and Ukraine's historic destiny, which is dismissed by many western commentators as hyperbole, he has real concerns - not just about what he sees as Ukraine's drift into Nato's orbit, but also about the consequences of a viable democratic system being established in what he regards as part of the Russian heartland.
Such discussions are music to Moscow's ears. But how far might they go? Could some kind of renewed or amended diplomatic initiative be conceived for the separatist, pro-Russian areas of eastern Ukraine to replace the largely moribund Minsk II process? This was the diplomatic agreement in 2015 which sought to end the fighting in the Donbas region, involving Russia, Ukraine and the OSCE, with mediation from the leaders of France and Germany.
"Moscow wants the US to agree to a de-facto neutralisation of Ukraine, which would have profound implications not just for the country, but for how security is managed in Europe."
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