The Kremlin has threatened to flex Russia’s considerable nuclear might, but experts believe it may be the empty rhetoric of a losing team.
Russia is slowly but surely, losing its war against Ukraine.Vladimir Putin’s plans are falling to pieces. Slowly but surely, Russia is losing its war against Ukraine. At the same time, it is losing nearly all of its most key political and economic allies, and losing a decent chunk of the market for its energy exports, which serve as the backbone of the Russian economy.
This doesn’t mean, however, that the war is over. Experts estimate that Russia still has approximately 1.3-1.5m tons of Soviet-era munition stored away. This hoard would be enough to last until May or June of this year at the present bombardment rate. And then there’s the country’s annual munitions production capacity of around 500,000 tonnes per year. “Putin might not escalate, reports Euractiv, “but buying time will support a war of attrition rather than accept failure.
Yes, gas prices are still high, but the punishing prices and shortages predicted have not materialized, and Europe’s natural gas storage has been refilled. There’s still the chance that an extreme and prolonged cold snap in the coming months could tip the scales back in Russia’s favor, but as of now the projections are rosy for the European bloc.
the Financial Times, “calming fears that winter 2023/24 could be a bigger challenge given the much lower Russian flows compared with the first half of last year.”What’s more, other oil and gas producers are stepping up to fill the gap left by flagging Russian imports. According to Quartz, “,” while also warning that the market is set to tighten later this year, meaning it may be a bit too early to celebrate.
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