Suriya Jayanti: Putin still holds the cards when it comes to global energy
terminal explosion has reduced capacity at a facility that was shipping 20% of U.S. exports. The Schwechat refinery in Austria suffered damage on June 3. The U.K.’s Fawley refinery had a fire on June 6, amid labor strikes. A May 28 fire at France’s Donges refinery has kept it offline. A Romanian diesel facility only recently came back online after a long repair, and the Dutch Pernis refinery is slowly coming back to life after its own repairs.
The result is profound energy insecurity that keeps Europe from taking a firm stand against Russia, and that gives Russia the chance to draw and shoot first. Putin may also be enjoying watching the European energy crisis he is orchestrating affect the U.S., where inflation has coupled with refining blacklogs to push gas prices above $5/gallon. Even thoughin Asia and Europe are over $11/gallon, economic woes may suffocate the Biden Administration, a clear win for Putin.
The head of Ukraine’s gas transmission system operator, Serhiy Makagon, joined other European voices in declaring the cut in gas exports an “escalation” by Russia. He described action on the proverbial energy battlefield as “getting hot” and predicted that the Kremlin could completely cut off energy exports to the E.U.
The Kremlin’s energy retaliation against Europe amounts to a cut-off-the-nose-to-spite-the-face move, undoubtedly. But there is mounting evidence that Putin is considering it, and may have already cocked his gun. Europe, and the world, should prepare in earnest.
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