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It’s a detailed calculation, and I asked Cooper a few questions to better understand.All of the inspiration came from reading Kevin Cole’s work at Pro Football Focus a couple of years ago evaluating youngQBs using the same methodology. I decided this offseason to try and build a similar model specific to college football, so all of the work kicked off after the national championship game.
The cool part about this model is that we can turn those thoughts into a more objective process, and as these QBs begin to play, more weight is placed on their actual results. When should we believe that the former can’t-miss-five-star might not be the next big thing? Or that the lowly three-star is turning into an elite player? The model can help tell us when we might need to change our opinions sooner than we think.Success rate is the key metric in these rankings.
I define success rate as the percentage of plays with positive Expected Points Added . EPA is a way of measuring the value of each play; its yards, adjusted for context, expressed in points.
As you noted, the model is by no means an end-all, be-all, but if you had to side with numbers and choose one seemingly “overrated” QB to prove us all wrong, who would it be? I don’t think he’s the second-best QB in the country, but I really like watching Cam Rising play and think he deserves some love . He might be the toughest QB on the list and is just a gamer who gets results. Not many QBs can take down Caleb Williams twice in two months. Maybe Rising’s game doesn’tThe biggest upset this week is … ?
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