Recession Warning Via States' Economies Was a False Alarm

Market Overview Analysis by James Picerno covering: . Read James Picerno's latest article on Investing.com

The value of modeling recession risk-based multiple indicators is a hardy perennial. The latest example comes by way of aggregating trends in the 50 US state economies for estimating the odds that an NBER-defined downturn has started or is imminent. As recently asPar for the course in the art/science of estimating recession risk.

The good news is that by carefully reviewing a range of data – i.e., building a diversified set of indicators – it’s possible to develop relatively high-confidence estimates of the broad economic trend in recent history, which lays the foundation for nowcasting current conditions. On that basis, it’s reasonable to make a cautious forecast about the next one-to-two months.

The solution is to work harder and dig deeper, which is the focus of The US Business Cycle Risk Report. After a decade of real-time analysis, and continually refining the modeling for the newsletter, a crucial empirical fact emerges: there’s no substitute for robust ensemble modeling.

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