A new mega-poll suggests that Labour could lose significantly more seats to Nigel Farage's Reform UK than to the Conservatives in a hypothetical general election. The analysis highlights a potential for Reform UK to win 76 new seats, primarily at Labour's expense. This alarming trend is attributed to Labour's slim lead and the possibility of a rise in Reform UK support or a decline in Labour's backing.
A new mega-poll has revealed that Labour could face a significant threat from Nigel Farage 's Reform UK party in a hypothetical general election . The analysis, conducted by Focaldata and seen by The Observer, suggests that Reform UK could win 76 new seats, with 60 of those coming at the expense of Labour. Even a slight shift in voter preference towards Reform UK could see Starmer's party lose as many as 76 seats.
This concerning trend is attributed to Labour's slim lead and the potential for a rise in Reform UK support or a slight drop in Labour's backing.The poll, commissioned by the Hope Not Hate campaign group, surveyed nearly 18,000 voters and found that 4,000 would support Reform UK. Notably, one-fifth of these voters identified as 'moderate, interventionist' individuals, a demographic distinct from previous UKIP or Brexit voters. This group, while positive about immigration, expressed disappointment with Labour's ability to deliver on its promises. A senior Labour source, speaking to The Guardian, acknowledged the growing threat from Reform UK, stating that 'At the general election, the vast majority of people who voted for Reform were not considering Labour. That won't be true now, because we're in government and people are looking for change.' They further highlighted a broader shift in the political landscape, describing it as 'a change of era' with increased voter anger and fluidity. This sentiment is echoed by recent polls showing Reform UK surging ahead of the Conservatives and closing the gap with Labour. This fragmentation of the electorate, driven by voter discontent, has led to the rise of smaller parties as well. Reform UK has surged ahead of the Tories and is now just three points behind Labour, according to a new Survation poll. The Liberal Democrats are also benefiting from this trend, with their support increasing to 13 per cent. The poll suggests a stark fragmentation on the right of British politics, with a significant overlap between Reform UK and Conservative voters. While Labour struggles to retain its July vote share, Reform UK presents a more substantial challenge to the Conservatives.
Reform UK Labour Party Nigel Farage Keir Starmer General Election Mega-Poll Politics Conservative Party Electoral Shift Voter Discontent
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