An analysis of more than 71,000 shooting incidents in five major U.S. cities has identified lesser-known factors, such as lack of access to a vehicle, that are associated with increased firearm assaults. These factors, in addition to more well-known ones—low per capita income and a high proportion of adults with no high school diploma—can help provide a new and more effective way to direct anti-violence efforts, according to researchers whose findings are published in the Journal of the American College of Surgeons.
"We wanted to explore not necessarily how firearm laws might affect change in these communities, which is what is often talked about in the media, but how the social determinants of health might actually have a bigger impact on the everyday firearm violence that we see," said lead study author Ann Polcari, MD, MPH, MSGH, a general surgery resident at University of Chicago Medicine.
"We feel it important to stress that minority populations experience more firearm violence secondary to these longstanding structural inequities rather than an inherent or independent risk," the authors wrote. Factors associated with fewer shooting incidents included a higher percentage of inhabitants ages 65 or older or age 17 or younger, and a high density of multi-unit structures.This study shows the potential of the CDC's SVI to serve as a tool to help policymakers target neighborhoods most vulnerable to firearm violence, Dr. Polcari said."Firearm violence in the U.S. is a really complex issue, and there's not going to be one answer to solve it," she said.
Social Vulnerability and Firearm Violence: Geospatial Analysis of 5 U.S. Cities. Credit: American College of SurgeonsThe cross-sectional study merged 2018 SVI data on census tracts with shooting incidents from 2015 to 2021 in Baltimore, Chicago, Los Angeles, New York City, and Philadelphia. The analysis evaluated 71,296 shooting incidents across 4,415 census tracts.In all five cities combined, each decile rise in the SVI resulted in a 37% increase in shooting incidents.
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