Researchers discovered previously unrecognized oscillatory trends in COVID-19 cases across the U.S., particularly a north-south oscillation around the 37°-38° north latitude. These patterns highlight the complexity of pandemic dynamics and the importance of understanding regional disease transmission.
By Vijay Kumar MalesuReviewed by Benedette Cuffari, M.Sc.Sep 22 2024 In-depth analysis uncovers north-south oscillations in COVID-19 cases, revealing how regional waves shape the pandemic across the U.S. and providing key insights for future health interventions.
COVID-19 trends in the U.S. Since January 2020, the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 , which is the pathogen that causes COVID-19, has infected nearly 100 million individuals, over one million of whom have succumbed to the disease in the U.S. Spatiotemporal patterns of SARS-CoV-2 transmission have been observed since emerging in the U.S., with COVID-19 cases often surging during the winter and varying based on different regions.
For county-level analyses, 3,108 counties within the continental U.S. were included, which led to 2.9 million data points and 150 million reported cases by day and county. The log of case rates for every 100,000 people was used for all analyses due to its log-normal distribution. Hierarchical clustering was used to compare state-by-state daily case rates, with Pearson correlation coefficients utilized as the distance metric. Ward's method minimized within-cluster variance during clustering. Based on Spearman's correlation coefficient, a heatmap of state rankings across dates was used to visualize shifts in state-level case trends over time and reveal oscillatory ranking patterns.
A cross-date state rank correlation matrix showed a structured "checkerboard" pattern, with blocks of internally high correlations lasting about three months. These blocks indicated recurring cycles of case rate similarities across states. The matrix also revealed parallel diagonal bands, with strong correlations observed in state rankings from one and two years earlier.
Mode III highlighted oscillations in the northern U.S., particularly during the fall and winter, with high case rates in northcentral and northeastern regions observed during the fall and spring, respectively. Mode IV, which explained less variance, correlated with specific waves in the Northeast and Midwest regions.
Coronavirus Forecasting Omicron Pathogen Public Health Research Respiratory SARS SARS-Cov-2 Severe Acute Respiratory Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Syndrome
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