While the survey by Savanta still points to victory for Keir Starmer in 2024, it will bring some hope to the Tories that they could avoid electoral wipeout
in mid-October. The latest poll is the lowest lead and lowest Labour vote share, as well as the highest Conservative vote share, since mid-September.
The position of the smaller parties remains largely unchanged, with the Lib Dems on 10 per cent, Reform on 5 per cent, the SNP on 4 per cent, and Greens up one to 3 per cent. “However, Labour’s inflated lead in VI [voting intention] polls has been exacerbated by higher-than-usual proportions of 2019 Conservatives being undecided. In this poll, just 10 per cent of those who voted Conservative in 2019 are undecided, compared to 15 per cent last week, and therefore the Conservatives are retaining more of their 2019 vote and fewer are being removed from the headline VI numbers.
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