Alaska-Pacific River Forecast Center staff say spring breakup of ice on the Western Alaska rivers could happen a few days later than usual this year.
After a brief period of warm, springy weather, many Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta communities plunged back into negative temperatures the second week of April.
Ice conditions are also important to consider, according to Ostman. Community partners on snowmachines can report on ice conditions throughout the winter, and that information together with satellite imagery in the visible and microwave spectrums helps put together a more complex picture of the river ice.
“In the most broad terms, we are not as cold as we were, say, last year,” Ostman said. “We have less snow in most places than we had last year. And we think that breakup will not be as late as it was last year. And probably overall, we think the impacts from breakup will be less severe.” “It’s subjective. We have to make sure that we use what we know and what we’ve learned from the past to help predict what’s going on,” Ostman said. “But really, what we’re looking at is we’re looking at a forecast temperature model going out about seven days, and then super smart people who come up with climate models that project out even further.
“Not only are we forecasting sort of a window of time for breakup date-wise, on that temporal scale, but we’re also looking at what the basin flood potential is for most villages on the Yukon, most villages on the Kuskokwim, and other places across the state — but those two rivers in particular,” Ostman said. “Historically, we’ve assigned a range of flood severity, or flood potential at these sites.
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