Although sanctioned and isolated, Vladimir Putin cannot afford to back down. So expect an escalation in cyberattacks, disinformation, and nuclear threats, writes ianbremmer.
, its now-closest remaining ally. Sanctioned and isolated, Iran has long acted as the world’s most active rogue state by using espionage, support for terrorism, proxy wars, drone and missile strikes, and other means to advance its aims and aggravate its enemies.Russia will prove a more formidable spoiler, because it has greater means to make trouble and a nuclear arsenal that provides deterrence against outside force.
These are mainly threats designed to persuade voters in Europe and America that their government’s military and financial support for Ukraine is becoming too risky.The threats alone will raise alert levels to their highest point since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, and the war in Ukraine will make it much harder for Putin to back down than it was for Nikita Khrushchev six decades ago.
Over the coming year, Russia may well launch disinformation campaigns not just against the Democrats but also against Donald Trump’s Republican presidential rivals. Moscow will probably provoke trouble in the Balkans, as a ploy to distract NATO from Ukraine. That will probably remain the case this year. Russian officials know that damaging attacks on Western critical infrastructure that can easily be traced to the Russian government or affiliated cyber groups might provoke highly damaging retaliation.
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