Labour is on its way back and this by-election could be a defining moment in the battle to put Sir Keir Starmer in Number 10.
Labour sources at the Rutherglen and Hamilton West count were either playing a game with us about the scale of their party's victory or were genuinely surprised. Early on at the count, they said they thought the swing from the SNP to Labour would be 7% to 8%, suggesting a gain of 15 to 22 seats in Scotland in a general election. They said a 10% swing, which they claimed they didn't expect, would suggest Labour gains of 24 seats.
In 2015, when under Nicola Sturgeon the SNP won 56 of Scotland's seats, Labour held just one, Ian Murray in Edinburgh South. After winning seven in 2017, Labour slumped to one again, the resilient Mr Murray, in 2019. Does this by-election mean Sir Keir Starmer is on course to win a clear working majority next year. Not necessarily. It's only a by-election and Labour has been through enough false dawns to fall for that. In 1992, for example.
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