The recession will come in late 2024 or early 2025, BCA Research predicts.
U.S. stocks are set to drop more than 30%, as a recession hits the U.S. economy in the coming months, BCA Research predicts. The firm said its models show the recession will come in late 2024 or early 2025. "Going underweight today. We conservatively expect the S & P 500 to drop to 3750 during the coming recession," chief global strategist Peter Berezin wrote in a note Tuesday. That suggests 31.5% downside from Wednesday's close.
Absent "overwhelming evidence" of an imminent recession risk, the central bank will be reluctant to cut rates aggressively, he said. Plus, monetary policy may still continue to tighten even after rate cuts begin, he said. Getting defensive Investors should adopt a defensive sector tilt by overweighting consumer staples, utilities and health care, Berezin advised.
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