The fight for Scotland is by far the closest thing we have to an unpredictable competition in this general election, ITV News Correspondent Peter Smith writes.
I say “apparently” because we haven’t seen too much of that thing you call sunshine.
Most polls have Labour in the lead to become the biggest party in Scotland. This would be a massive transformation of their fortunes given they only have one MP north of the border currently. The last time they won an election in Scotland was 14 years ago. Most of these are held by the SNP. In the central belt, especially around Glasgow, Labour have their eyes on changing the whole city from yellow to red. Enough seats are up for grabs in that densely-populated, urban area that it could have a huge say on who emerges as the winner in Scotland.
Ultimately, if what you feed into an MRP is no good, it severely impacts what comes out. That is why there have been massive variations and some, shall we say, questionable projections for individual seat outcomes.There’s also likely to be significant tactical voting in Scotland which MRPs don’t always reflect particularly well.
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