“Understanding whose counter-offensive this really is will determine what happens after it draws to a close,” argues the former British general
is under way, and its armed forces intend to take back as much Russian-occupied territory as possible in the coming months. The outcome is hostage to the chance and emotion that characterises all wars. Whatever the result, understanding whose counter-offensive this really is will determine what happens after it draws to a close as the weather turns later this year.
The third outcome, somewhere between the first two, is that Ukraine takes and holds worthwhile territory somewhere along the 1,000km-long frontline. This would not conclusively end the war, so at Christmas neither side would think they have won, lost or exhausted the will to fight. The strategic calculus would not have moved much.
Were that view to gain ground—the chances of which would increase if total military success looked impossible—would the West support an armistice or ceasefire? Would the political, military and financial costs of supporting Ukraine be seen as not worth the candle, despite the efforts since February 2022? If so, the day the West stopped sending the money, weapons and ammunition would be the day there was no point more Ukrainians sweating and bleeding against a much more powerful neighbour.
Picking up the bill would mean Europe having to rapidly mobilise its collective defence-industrial capacity to match the demands of bringing a long, big war in Ukraine to a successful conclusion. It would mean finding more than $100bn a year for at least three years, followed by the expectation of as much as $1trn more for rebuilding Ukraine when the shooting stops.
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