A new poll reveals the SNP poised to become the largest party at the Scottish Parliament in the next election, while Labour faces a significant decline. The SNP benefits from Labour's struggles, suggesting a pro-independence majority at Holyrood.
A new poll suggests that the Scottish National Party ( SNP ) will be the largest party at the Scottish Parliament ( Holyrood ) in the next election, as Labour faces a substantial decline and is projected to lose seats. The Find Out Now poll, conducted for The Herald, revealed that support for the SNP stands at 31 percent in the constituency vote and 25 percent in the list vote. Labour 's constituency vote is at 19 percent, and its list vote at 15 percent.
Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats and the Scottish Greens are both at 10 percent in the constituency vote and 13 percent in the list vote. The Scottish Conservatives secure 12 percent in the constituency vote and 13 percent in the list vote, while Reform UK garners 13 percent in the constituency vote and 11 percent in the list vote. Alba Party trails at 2 percent in the constituency vote and 7 percent in the list vote.Analysis by polling expert John Curtice indicates that the SNP would win 51 seats, down from 64 in the 2021 election. Labour's projected seats shrink to 16, a decline of six. The Conservatives, Scottish Liberal Democrats, and Scottish Greens are all predicted to win 15 seats each. Alba Party is projected to have eight seats, and Reform UK nine. These figures suggest a pro-independence majority at Holyrood, with 74 MSPs from pro-independence parties. Curtice remarked to The Herald that, while the poll doesn't reveal any dramatic shifts, Labour's ongoing difficulties are evident. Reform UK's rise is sustained, and the SNP, despite appearing to slip slightly compared to previous polls, benefits from Labour's decline. This allows the SNP the opportunity to form the next Scottish government, albeit from a weaker position than currently.The poll, encompassing 1,334 individuals, was conducted by Find Out Now between January 15 and 20. It also explored voting intentions for a hypothetical Westminster election, revealing 31 percent support for the SNP, 18 percent for Labour, 12 percent for the Tories, 10 percent for the Liberal Democrats, 7 percent for the Greens, 17 percent for Reform UK, and 5 percent for other parties. Curtice's analysis suggests this would translate to 31 seats for the SNP, 11 for Labour, six for the Liberal Democrats, and five for the Conservatives. Scottish Labour deputy leader Dame Jackie Baillie responded to the poll, stating that Labour has ended 14 years of Tory chaos and is focused on repairing the foundations and transforming the country. She emphasizes the need for a change of direction in Scotland to address the SNP's perceived failures and decline, asserting that Scottish Labour will work diligently to gain voter trust and demonstrate their ability to deliver the necessary change.
SNP Labour Holyrood Scottish Parliament Election Poll Pro-Independence Reform UK Alba Party
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