The Chancellor is considering whether to strip out the effect of public-sector bonuses when calculating the state pension for next year
should rise by 8.5 per cent in 2024 under the formula used by the Treasury to calculate its annual increase.
The inflation rate for September – the month used to calculate the triple lock – will be revealed on Wednesday and is forecast to be somewhere around 6.6 per cent. The annual earnings increase for May to July was 8.5 per cent – meaning that figure will be the one used to determine the rate of pensions, because it is higher than inflation.
If the higher figure is used, the basic state pension for new claimants will rise from £203.85 a week to £221.20. If the lower earnings figure replaces it, the Treasury will save hundreds of millions of pounds but pensioners will lose £74 a year. The last time the triple lock was tweaked was in 2021, when average wages surged during the recovery from the pandemic, having dropped significantly in the previous year – meaning inflation was used as the measure instead.. He said: “I think that we have to be very careful not to break manifesto promises… sometimes it does happen, but I think it needs to be a very exceptional circumstance where people can see that there’s a very good reason.
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