Stay bullish on dollar; sell EUR/USD rallies

Stay bullish on dollar; sell EUR/USD rallies - Citi

At 07:00 ET , EUR/USD traded 0.1% higher at $1.0926, having dropped around 0.3% over the course of the last week.

This initially drove safe haven FX to outperform and catalyzed unwinds in crowded carry positions. This past week witnessed a reversal as higher beta FX outperformed and lower yielders lagged.“Markets have reached an inflection point where the trading environment has become increasingly tactical and the catalyst focus has shifted from inflation to the labor market and growth,” Citi analysts said, in a note, dated Aug. 12.

Citi has revised its Fed call and expects 125 basis points in cuts through the year-end With markets pricing ~100 bps in cuts over this window, this creates asymmetric dovish repricing until further signs of stabilization emerge.

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