Stocks Rebound as Trump Delays Mexico Tariffs

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Stocks Rebound as Trump Delays Mexico Tariffs
TRADE WARTARIFFSGLOBAL MARKETS
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Global markets experienced volatility on Monday as investors reacted to Donald Trump's tariff threats against Canada, Mexico, and China. The S&P 500 initially fell sharply but recovered after Trump agreed to postpone tariffs on Mexico and Canada. Currency markets also fluctuated, with the Mexican peso and Canadian dollar paring back losses. Global investment banks warned that sustained tariffs could halve US economic growth.

Stocks witnessed a partial recovery from their significant losses on Monday as currency markets underwent fluctuations. Investors grappled with keeping pace with Donald Trump's escalating plans for imposing tariffs on several of the United States' key trading partners. The US president issued threats on Saturday to implement a 25 percent tariff on imports originating from Mexico and Canada, a 10 percent levy on Canadian energy, and a 10 percent tariff on imports from China.

These announcements triggered a substantial sell-off in global equities during the initial trading hours. He also hinted at imposing tariffs against the European Union. However, markets experienced a sharp rebound after Trump agreed to postpone the tariffs on Mexico for a month, following a phone conversation with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum on Monday. He subsequently granted a similar 30-day reprieve for Canada after speaking with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau later in the day. The S&P 500, which had earlier declined by nearly 2 percent, concluded the day with a 0.8 percent decrease, with utilities and technology stocks among the worst performers. Investors pointed out that Trump's apparent reversal on Mexico underscored the immense difficulty for markets in keeping up with his rapidly evolving tariff plans. 'What is evident in this new environment is to refrain from making knee-jerk reactions and impulsive moves,' stated Guy Miller, chief market strategist at insurer Zurich. European stocks also staged a partial recovery as investors scrambled to assess the shifting probability of a full-blown global trade war. The continent-wide Stoxx Europe 600 closed 0.9 percent lower, rebounding from steeper losses. Currency markets also experienced significant swings. The Mexican peso, which had earlier depreciated by as much as 3 percent against the dollar, recovered to trade slightly higher on the day. The Canadian dollar also reduced its declines to trade at C$1.457 against the greenback. The US dollar appreciated by 0.5 percent against a basket of currencies, having previously gained more than 1 percent. 'My head hurts,' remarked a foreign exchange trader at a major European bank. 'It's almost impossible to trade; there's simply too much to process. Buy. No, wait, sell. No, actually buy. Just give up,' the individual added. Global investment banks warned that the tariffs would negatively impact the US economy, along with the rest of the world. Analysts at UBS and Morgan Stanley projected that if the tariffs were sustained, they could potentially halve US real GDP growth this year, reducing it by more than 1 percentage point. The US 10-year Treasury yield declined by 0.04 percentage points to 4.53 percent as investors sought refuge in safe assets. Yields fall when prices rise. However, economists have also cautioned that the tariffs are likely to accelerate inflation in the US, discouraging the Federal Reserve from reducing interest rates and bolstering the dollar. 'The most evident implication is a stronger dollar,' stated Eric Winograd, chief economist at AllianceBernstein. 'A long dollar position is the cleanest, clearest expression of the trade war that is now being launched.' Earlier in Asia, Japan's export-heavy Nikkei 225 closed down by 2.7 percent. After experiencing a decline in early trading, Hong Kong's Hang Seng index erased its losses to close flat. Mainland China's stock market remained closed until Wednesday. China's offshore renminbi, which trades freely, dipped as much as 0.7 percent to Rmb7.37 a dollar on Monday morning before retracing its losses to 7.32. Other commodities often viewed as proxies for Chinese and global economic growth also fell. LME copper declined by 0.7 percent to $9,048 per tonne, while nickel and aluminium both dropped by more than 1 percent. Crypto markets also experienced declines as traders reduced their exposure to riskier assets. Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency, fell as much as 27 percent before staging a partial rebound. Bitcoin was down 1 percent to $101,098 per coin. George Saravelos, at Deutsche Bank, stated that the tariff announcements were 'at the most hawkish end of the protectionist spectrum we could have envisaged,' and that markets needed to 'structurally and significantly reprice the trade war risk premium.

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