Over recent decades, there was a large variation in cyclone-related excess deaths by hurricane, state, county, year, and social vulnerability for counties in the United States, with 83% of hurricane-related deaths occurring more recently and 94% in more socially vulnerable counties.
Using death registration data across four decades and an ensemble of 16 Bayesian statistical models, the researchers estimated the number of excess deaths after tropical cyclones in all impacted areas in the United States including estimates by county, year, tropical cyclone name, and strength of tropical cyclone. Estimated excess deaths in the study were also compared to data from official sources and EM-DAT, the international disaster database.
"Trends of heightened activity and increased intensity of tropical cyclones in recent years indicate that tropical cyclone exposure is and will remain a public health concern," noted Marianthi-Anna Kioumourtzoglou, ScD, associate professor of Environmental Health Sciences at Columbia Mailman, and senior author.
"Future research may be able to study associations by smaller areal units—ZIP Codes, for example —as appropriate exposure and outcome data become available. It is also essential to prepare for tropical cyclones by accounting for the social determinants of risk and vulnerability of exposed communities, since the most socially vulnerable bear the greatest burden of excess mortality."
"Our work highlights how deaths are impacted by tropical cyclones, an understudied exposure in relation to public health, and one which will remain an important threat as the climate changes," observed Parks.priority, future research should focus on understanding the biological and structural drivers of cyclone-related mortality, how to minimize the number of excess deaths related to tropical cyclones, and the impacts on the scale from years to decades.
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