Study reveals impact of climate change on enterovirus outbreaks

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Study reveals impact of climate change on enterovirus outbreaks
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Outbreaks of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD), which causes fever and rash in young children, typically occur in the summer months.

Brown UniversityAug 6 2024 Outbreaks of hand, foot and mouth disease , which causes fever and rash in young children, typically occur in the summer months. Similarly, historic cases of polio were observed in the summer months in the United States. Both diseases are caused by different species of enteroviruses, a large genus of RNA viruses. However, the drivers of the seasonal patterns of these diseases have remained somewhat unclear.

We find, even after controlling for other factors, that temperature appears to increase enterovirus transmission. Crucially, we see a similar sized effect for polio historically, and more recent enteroviruses serotypes that cause HFMD." "Enterovirus outbreaks exhibit clear patterns over space," noted co-author Saki Takahashi, Assistant Professor of Epidemiology at Johns Hopkins University who has previously studied the outbreak dynamics of enteroviruses in both China and Japan. "At higher latitudes we see large outbreaks of HFMD every two or three years, but closer to the tropics we observe outbreaks twice a year – our results are able to capture these large scale patterns.

Related Stories"What really matters is the seasonal range of climate, i.e. the maximum temperature and minimum temperature," said co-author Wenchang Yang, Associate Research Scholar of Geosciences at Princeton University. "That might have implications for how we think about the future effects."

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