ERCOT faces 16% chance of grid emergency and 12% risk of rolling blackouts in August, per new modeling
Texans ’ risk of dealing with emergency grid conditions after sundown will top 16% in August, according to a new report from the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. The risk of rolling blackouts during the hour beginning at 8 p.m. is 12%, the state grid operator said Friday. The elevated risks come after the grid loses its cushion of supply from solar power at sundown and further complicated by a chokepoint in transmission lines near San Antonio and concerns about reserve supply.
’s calls for Texans to conserve power not likely to end anytime soon as grid stays stretched “The more concerning scenario is when you have very low wind performance in the northern part of the state and you’ve got a lot of supply or wind in the southern part of the state,” said its modeling accounts for potential wind power imbalances that could overload the South Texas transmission lines. Adequate power reserves are also a concern for August. “Reserve shortage risks are the highest during the evening hours when loads are typically near their highest levels and solar production is ramping down,”
admits Texas grid faces risk of ‘cascading outages’ in wait for new CPS transmission line Low wind production also “remains a significant risk” for keeping reserves up to handle August demand peaks, considers a risk probability that passes 10% to be “elevated.” Such risks come in the winter, too. In January,
is requesting proposals from large energy users or utilities willing to curtail energy use to help reduce traffic on the the transmission lines.
CPS Pablo Vegas Texans South Texas San Antonio Low North American Electric Reliability Corp.
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