We could do most of what we need to prevent 1.5°C warming now; reversing it will be nigh impossible
The technology the world needs to reach net zero carbon emissions and limit global warming to 1.5°C is increasingly available, but we're still not necessarily on track to meet our 2050 climate change goals, the International Energy Agency reports.
was a follow-up to the same"Net Zero Roadmap" that the IEA released in 2021, which the agency said was necessary after significant changes to the energy landscape in the past two years, driven in part by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. A global ramp-up in the production of renewables, particularly solar, and increased purchases of electric cars are moving the world toward some climate goals. Implementation of solar and EVs since 2021, for example, puts those two technologies on track to meet 2050 net zero goals outlined by the IEA in 2021. All in all, things appear to be getting better, at least from the technological standpoint, the IEA said."In the IEA's original Roadmap in 2021, technologies not yet available on the market delivered nearly half of the emissions reductions needed for net zero in 2050. That number has now fallen to around 35% in this year's update," the organizationThat doesn't mean we're doing everything we need to be doing to meet those goals. The IEA saidthat use of fossil fuels and their associated carbon emissions will peak this decade, but their replacement with renewables is"not nearly enough" to meet 1.5°C goals. Were we to ramp up renewable deployment, improve energy efficiency, cut methane emissions, and increase electrification with tech available today, the world could deliver more than 80 percent of the emissions reductions needed by 2030, the IEA said.If humans are going to actually meet net zero goals, they need"large new, smarter and repurposed infrastructure networks; large quantities of low-emissions fuels; technologies to capture COfrom smokestacks and the atmosphere; more nuclear power; and large land areas for renewables," the IEA said. But again, we're not moving fast enough. Clean energy investment is set to reach a record $1.8 trillion this year, the IEA said, but that needs to climb to around $4.5 trillion a year by the 2030s – a move that will require stronger domestic policies in countries around the world, as well as improved international support.If huamity fails to rein in emissions, a scenario which the IEA modeled,"nearly 5 Gt COwould have to be removed from the atmosphere every year during the second half of this century." Whether that can be achieved is uncertain. "If carbon removal technologies fail to deliver at such a scale, returning the temperature to 1.5°C would not be possible," the IEA said. As to whether it has faith in carbon capture, utilization and storage technologies, that's another story altogether:"So far, the history of CCUS has largely been one of unmet expectations."
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