The benefit-risk of the mRNA-1273 COVID-19 vaccine medrxivpreprint US_FDA mRNA vaccine vaccination COVID19 coronavirus covid SARSCoV2
By Tarun Sai LomteDec 12 2022Reviewed by Danielle Ellis, B.Sc. In a recent study posted to the medRxiv* preprint server, researchers modeled the benefit-risk of Moderna’s coronavirus disease 2019 mRNA-1273 vaccine.
The study and findings In the present study, researchers performed the benefit-risk assessment of the mRNA-1273 vaccine in individuals aged 18 or above. They evaluated the benefits and risks per million individuals stratified by age, given the age-dependent risk of pericarditis and myocarditis after vaccination. The benefit endpoints were COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and admissions to an intensive care unit preventable by vaccination.
The authors assumed SARS-CoV-2 Omicron as the dominant variant for five scenarios and 30% and 72% vaccine effectiveness against COVID-19 cases and hospitalization, respectively. For scenario 4, SARS-CoV-2 Delta was assumed as the predominant variant, and the VE was 80% and 90% against COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations.
The model predicted that vaccinating a million males aged 18 to 25 with two mRNA-1273 doses would have prevented 82,484 COVID-19 cases, 4,766 associated hospitalizations, 1,144 ICU admissions, and 51 deaths in the base scenario. Nonetheless, this would have resulted in 128 cases of myocarditis/pericarditis, with 110 hospitalizations and zero ICU admissions/deaths.
Notably, given the uncertainty in the pandemic trajectory, the assumption of a constant rate of COVID-19 incidence would have created a high uncertainty on benefit outcomes. The estimated benefits of COVID-19 vaccination will decline if the VE decreases against emergent SARS-CoV-2 variants.
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