Paul Keating is insouciant about China’s muscle and dismissive of Taiwan’s democracy. But he has changed the national debate about the submarine deal.
on Wednesday forced the big AUKUS questions to the surface.
Whether he’s right, wrong or somewhere in between, Paul Keating has raised some issues worth debating.Keating, however, wanted to talk about defence. He spelt out the essential facts plainly and correctly: Australia is next to impossible for China to invade because we are protected by vast oceans. Even if China could assemble a fleet large enough to mount an invasion, Australia could easily pick it off with anti-ship missiles.
Keating’s judgment that AUKUS has “screwed into place the last shackle in the long chain the United States has laid out to contain China” is therefore premature. Besides, the project itself is so ambitious and lengthy that there is time for Australia to rethink. On current projections, spending on the submarines won’t peak until the mid- to late-2030s.
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