The Muslim holy month begins without a ceasefire
in Gaza could be agreed. The implicit deadline was Ramadan, the Muslim month of fasting. Now Ramadan is starting—and there is no sign of a cessation of hostilities between Israel and Hamas. As a result the Gaza war is entering an unpredictable new phase. The level of violence could subside, but there are scenarios in which it mightto the West Bank and the wider region.
What happens next? For many Muslims Ramadan is a time of contemplation and abstention from worldly passions, belligerence included. Still, Hamas hopes it might be a catalytic moment. It has long sought for the war to arouse resistance among all Muslims: “March forward, whether lightly or heavily armed,” said, the commander of the group’s military wing, on October 7th: “This is the time.
Whether this Ramadan is calm or not depends in part on three questions. One is the situation at the al-Aqsa mosque. In a sign of its potency as a symbol, Hamas’s code name for its brutal attack on October 7th was al-Aqsa flood. It sits atop the Haram al-Sharif, or Noble Sanctuary, and is known to Jews as the Temple Mount. For Muslims a prayer there during Ramadan is worth far more than prayers offered elsewhere during the year and as a result many are keen to be there.
The second flashpoint is the dire aid situation in Gaza. On March 7th President Joe Biden pledged that America would build a pier towith Israel’s neglect of its responsibilities towards civilians. There are some signs of improvement. Some humanitarian monitors say 300-500 trucks are entering Gaza daily from Israel, up from an average of 20 during one week last month. Still, others cite much lower figures and a UN-backed report says the level of food insecurity is frighteningly high.
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