There is a notable — and rising — risk of financial turmoil if the new White House does anything to spook investors
As Scott Bessent, Trump’s Treasury secretary nominee, endured his first Congressional hearing on Thursday, he was grilled about America’s economic challenges. Even before he started, however, evidence had emerged of these: on Wednesday the Mortgage Bankers Association reported that the 30-year mortgage rate had jumped above 7 per cent, following a 1 percentage point rise in 10-year Treasury yields since last autumn. This is not particularly punitive by the standards of financial history.
unless either or both US rates are cut quickly or US nominal growth is accelerated higher”. He believes this may have already occurred. More notable still, this week Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater hedge fund, published the first part of his analysis of historical debt crises. He said he was “deeply concerned” that America will “go broke” and warns that a multi-decade debt cycle could soon implode.
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