The forewarning of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was an intelligence coup for both America and Britain. Sir Simon Gass explains how his team works
The forewarning of Russia’s invasion was an intelligence coup for both America and Britain: arguably the most striking one since spies revealed that Soviet missiles had been placed in Cuba in 1962. It was as much about assessment as raw material, suggests Sir Simon. Weeks before the attack, his team judged that an invasion was “highly likely”, a term which denotes 80-90% probability, in the language of intelligence analysis.
Britain’s pre-invasion intel was notable not only for its prescience, but also its public profile. America and Britain released highly classified material to expose Mr Putin’s plans. Is this a model for the future? Declassified secrets must be “a fair reflection of what’s happening on the ground”, warns Sir Simon, not just cherry-picked detail. They must also be used sparingly, only when the impact is “truly consequential”, as it was last year.
Not every judgment has been as successful as Ukraine. “We did not foresee, for example, the speed at which the Taliban took over in Afghanistan,” admits Sir Simon. “Having spoken to the Taliban,” he adds, “neither did they.” But an enduring lesson from these crises, he says, is that those weighing up intelligence, often ambiguous and fragmentary, need to have “analytical courage” in stating a conclusion.
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