The IRGC will remain loyal to the regime but it should never be underestimated
, in a helicopter crash on Sunday afternoon, has created a dramatic and unexpected moment of uncertainty in Iran but little, in the short term, is likely to change.
Raisi was a divisive leader, becoming President at his second attempt. His candidacy was carefully choreographed, with reformists and rival conservatives side-lined. The run-up to those elections could be messy as the regime hurries to install its preferred candidate. Ultimately though, the Supreme Leader’s chosen candidate will be victorious and he will be another hardliner.
With Raisi now gone, the remaining favourite is Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba, but many question his religious credentials and his appointment might be seen as nepotism, especially in a country built on the violent rejection of hereditary dynasties in the 1979 revolution.
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