What are Emmanuel Macron’s chances of being re-elected? At launch, our model gives France’s president a 79% likelihood of keeping his job
Our forecast is the latest in a series of statistical models we have built that use data about the reliability of past polling to analyse elections still under way. In America’s presidential contest in 2020, for example, we gave Joe Biden a very high chance of winning even if the polls were off by more than usual. In Germany’s elections last year we calculated a fair chance of success for the Social Democrats, who now lead the government there.
On February 2nd our model, which will be updated daily, gave Emmanuel Macron a 79% chance of victory. This figure will change as the campaign unfolds. We are more bullish than international betting markets, which rate his chances at around 70%. Mr Macron’s comfortable lead in first-round polling suggests only an 8% chance of his being knocked out.
Even if the election seems almost a formality today, that could easily change. Mrs Pécresse could well beat the president if she can get to the second round. We currently give her only a 32% chance of getting through, but that probability will change as the campaign ramps up. Besides, a 79% chance of success is by no means a certainty—as anyone would attest who has contemplated a game of Russian roulette, where the odds are even better.
This election is worth watching closely. Mr Macron is bidding to be the leader of the European Union, which has a vacancy to fill. Olaf Scholz, Germany’s new chancellor, seems reluctant to take up Angela Merkel’s European mantle. Italy has by avoiding an early vote, but still faces uncertainty. Britain is gone. France matters more than for a long time. It matters greatly who is in charge.
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